Foreseeability vs. probabilityForeseeability, is simply the acknowledgement that an incident can happen. Basically, if you can reasonably imagine something happening, it’s foreseeable. For example, a wild animal attack can happen on a school playground — animals have attacked humans before, after all. Will it happen, however? That’s where probability comes in. Probability is the likelihood of an incident actually happening. In the security industry probability often determined by taking several variables into account, including foreseeability:
- Foreseeability: Can you reasonably foresee an incident happening?
- Historical context: Has it happened before?
- Visibility: Is the site controversial or in the public eye for some reason?
- Proximity: Is the site in a high-risk area?
- Active threats: Have threats been made?
- Critical assets: Does the site have assets someone might want to destroy or steal?